2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby dcapodic » December 6, 2018, 10:21 am

I know in this 24/7/365 news/sports cycle we are in these days people have to have something to talk about so constantly these ideas about these theoretical discussions come up. Let's see, what teams are tanking...

The Eastern Conference has 15 teams, 9 of them have a below .500 record. It's time to face the reality, teams are not necessarily tanking, they just suck. In fact, I will take it a step further....in trying to make the league more appealing and more offensive oriented (is there any doubt to anyone that this has been happening for years) they have essential killed the game from a skills standpoint and turned it into pro wrestling. It's a show, not a sport any more. Name me the guys that have REAL basketball talent, you know multi tool players....can run the floor, go to the hoop, have handle, shoot the mid range shot, etc. It wont take long cause there aren't many. Look at the stars that people clamoring for and hoping with all their hearts for the Knicks to give max contracts to....who is really any good and deserving of this kind of adoration....looks at the "stars" of this league and tell me who those great players really are, not by today's standards of publicity driven abilities but passes the eye test as really being a great player....then look at the average team, which in the case of the Eastern Conference is below .500. Does it take all of this "planning"...do we tank, do we try to win, etc. just to be .500? Who is any good in the conference, Philly....how long did they suck for just to swing and miss at more top picks than we will ever see in our lifetime (hopefully) just to get to the level of decent. Do you really feel like they are gonna win a championship....I sure don't and the only way they could even get this team on track was not a drafted player but trading for an established vet, one probably on the downside of his career so if they don't win now, will they just tear it down again and start over?!?.


Right now, the play in the NBA is REALLY bad and I mean REALLY bad. To go from the bottom to a contender is not such a huge leap by any means. Personally, I like the road the Knicks are on and I dont see it as a decision to tank or not, they just aren't very good but that is cool cause they aren't very good for good reasons....they are playing youth,getting experience, evaluating players, building a culture, etc. Will it all mean anything if they don't get lucky and come up with some talented players, no, but it is amazing how teams that do this always seem to find these talented players an yea, they may have their down times but they are short and they buonce back fast beacue they have a plan and culture that they can fall back on and not panic...( example of panic, Thomas, PJ, etc.).....

Bottom line, most teams aren't tanking they just suck that bad. Getting Doncic is the luck of the draw, being in the right place at the right time, plan on doing that and you get inot the hell of connstant tanking....just draft well, wherever you draft and develop a culture, a playing style and develop your talent.

It really is not rocket science, in fact it is not a science at all. People taht say it is are just part of the PR that makes the NBA as bad as it is now.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby dcapodic » December 6, 2018, 10:32 am

NewlyKnicked wrote:I agree selecting the correct player is tricky, but if you get to pick first, then you can only blame your FO for choosing wrong whereas missing a good player by one spot (cough Curry cough) is quite the painful pill. In addition, it’s the other way around: stats actually show that the higher the player is picked the higher the chance of him becoming valuable. The busts and steals are the exceptions. The warriors have been unbelievably lucky/crafty with their late draftees. You can’t expect to draft like them



You can’t expect to draft like them


Why not? Is it because the GSW have a long and illustrious history of drafting and attracting talented players? The glue that makes that team stick is a player that got drafted after all the other teams picked at least once. KD, he wasn't drafted.

I totally agree, the higher you pick, the better your shot at getting a better player but that just makes the odds better, not perfect.

The busts and steals are the exceptions



In the past, I would have agreed more, in today's NBA mentality, this is becoming less and less of a reality. It's the sizzle that is selling the execs on who to dfraft, not the steak. Teams rare drafting on PR type of stuff and talents that seem to be in line with "today's NBA" (long range 3pters, exceptional physical talent but can't make a 10 foot shot, etc.) rather than guys who just show basketball talent. In other words, trying to be the smartest guy in the room.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby NewlyKnicked » December 6, 2018, 12:58 pm

The Warriors had an unrealistic serie of drafts with Green, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The combination of those complementary high talents, the fact that they were all taken one after the other in rapid succession, and that they reached peak production at the same time that made this dynasty possible. What I meant was, you shouldn't base your whole rebuild strategy on having the same luck. It's highly improbable to find such high value in the draft, to find it in successive drafts, and that they complement each other that well. So, the draft is not by itself a realistic way to get a contending team.

That's where free agency is supposed to come in and help you get the missing piece(s). You then have a better idea on what you're getting, but the trick is you don't have entire control on whether the targeted player does come or not. In any case, getting top free agents to complete your already talented team is only possible if you have the space available which almost always requires some of your talent being on rookie deals, e.g. your draftees. So the first step is important.

I agree that high picks don't guarantee anything, but I'd still prefer making my own selection that expect everyone else to have it wrong
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby Koopa Troopa » December 6, 2018, 2:18 pm

I just dont give a damn where the Knicks pick.

Busts and steals are not the exception. Good players in the top 5 are the exception. Do i really have to bring out a list of lottery picks of the last 10 years and point out that most guys suck?

NBA GM's gamble on children every year. Since Kobe and TMac blew up, every year its been "whos the next high school child that we can mold?"

Turns out despite raw athleticism you cant predict what kind of man these kids will be. They are just throwing the dice. Knox could be Kevin Durant, Tim Thomas, Darius Miles, or Dermarr Johnson. Nobody can even look at that sentence I just wrote and disagree. We rolled the dice. We'll see in a few years.

Like I said, if the Knicks got Mitchell instead of Frank nobody would even argue this topic.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby jpebike » December 6, 2018, 4:03 pm

i have to agree that the draft is a crap shoot most of the time. You need to build the culture and the Knicks are doing that. The knicks will have a lot more home games come February and it will be pretty hard to tank with a healthy KP back. If Porzingas had been injured a month or so earlier we may of gotten Doncic but that did't happen. As far as how people are rating this years draft class and the big 3 at Duke, I believe Zion is far and away the best player in the draft and could absolutely turn into a generational player. Zion Williamson is the one player in the draft who is a slam dunk. He is more than just a highlight Dunker. Dude is a freak of nature like I have never seen. They don't even give him the ball that much at Duke but in the NBA his game will thrive. He will be first team all NBA one day in my opinion.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby NewlyKnicked » December 7, 2018, 3:44 am

Koopa Troopa wrote:I just dont give a damn where the Knicks pick.

Busts and steals are not the exception. Good players in the top 5 are the exception. Do i really have to bring out a list of lottery picks of the last 10 years and point out that most guys suck?

NBA GM's gamble on children every year. Since Kobe and TMac blew up, every year its been "whos the next high school child that we can mold?"

Turns out despite raw athleticism you cant predict what kind of man these kids will be. They are just throwing the dice. Knox could be Kevin Durant, Tim Thomas, Darius Miles, or Dermarr Johnson. Nobody can even look at that sentence I just wrote and disagree. We rolled the dice. We'll see in a few years.

Like I said, if the Knicks got Mitchell instead of Frank nobody would even argue this topic.

You can either make your list and I'll make one of my own, and we'll argue endlessly, OR we can take a step back and look at the big picture like this:

Image

Not a surefire process of course. I'm pretty sure there isn't even one draft in history where any pick has constantly turned out better than all the picks coming after it. So yeah, no guarantee. But in average, the higher the pick, the better the value.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby NewlyKnicked » December 7, 2018, 3:49 am

jpebike wrote:i have to agree that the draft is a crap shoot most of the time. You need to build the culture and the Knicks are doing that. The knicks will have a lot more home games come February and it will be pretty hard to tank with a healthy KP back. If Porzingas had been injured a month or so earlier we may of gotten Doncic but that did't happen. As far as how people are rating this years draft class and the big 3 at Duke, I believe Zion is far and away the best player in the draft and could absolutely turn into a generational player. Zion Williamson is the one player in the draft who is a slam dunk. He is more than just a highlight Dunker. Dude is a freak of nature like I have never seen. They don't even give him the ball that much at Duke but in the NBA his game will thrive. He will be first team all NBA one day in my opinion.

So what's your point?
I'm not entirely convinced, but, for you, is Zion worth tanking because he's such a generational talent? AD/Lebron/Duncan... sure were worth tanking for. They weren't crap shoot #1 drafts, , wouldn't you agree? So, not pure luck, right?
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby H20Knick » December 7, 2018, 11:01 am

https://twitter.com/NBA_Math/status/107 ... 70624?s=19

On my phone at the airport, so cant easily yank the figure.. but someone pull this picture so the world can see how exceptional timmy jr is.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby Don Che » December 7, 2018, 11:57 am

issue is...if us basic fans know this...all GM's do.

Tim gets buckets because of how bad we are..on a good team he'd give you 13-15 ppg with decent to below average defense and playmaking.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby shakespeare » December 7, 2018, 12:05 pm

I been thinking. Koop does have a point...

We should trade our 1st round picks from here until the end of time.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby Koopa Troopa » December 7, 2018, 1:44 pm

Nooooooo. Damn I'm getting buried. Ill just stop. :laugh:


Let me know what happens when the Knicks finally get top 3 and the best player of the draft ends up being the 8th pick or something. Gonna have to keep tanking harder right?

Plus my argument for the draft being a high stakes gambling arena stems from the TMac/Kobe era and beyond, not 1985 til present. Yeah top 4 is better. But a losing culture doesnt help. :?
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby big_j_NY » December 7, 2018, 3:24 pm

shakespeare wrote:I been thinking. Koop does have a point...

We should trade our 1st round picks from here until the end of time.


:LOL: :LOL: :LOL:
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby nazrmohamed » December 7, 2018, 8:50 pm

H20Knick wrote:https://twitter.com/NBA_Math/status/1071063029964570624?s=19

On my phone at the airport, so cant easily yank the figure.. but someone pull this picture so the world can see how exceptional timmy jr is.


So to read this correctly. AD is overall the best player in the NBA. And Tim, is a negative. Hes actually better than I thought offensively yet his poor defense actually overcomes it.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby dcapodic » December 8, 2018, 7:21 am

Koopa Troopa wrote:Nooooooo. Damn I'm getting buried. Ill just stop. :laugh:


Let me know what happens when the Knicks finally get top 3 and the best player of the draft ends up being the 8th pick or something. Gonna have to keep tanking harder right?

Plus my argument for the draft being a high stakes gambling arena stems from the TMac/Kobe era and beyond, not 1985 til present. Yeah top 4 is better. But a losing culture doesnt help. :?


You are actually spot on Koop.

First off, most teams are not tanking, they just suck as does most of the play in the NBA right now.

Secondly, how can intentionally losing just to try and lose more than every other team that seems also to be tanking just to get an infinitesimal shot at one of the top picks so that you can then gamble on a player that may/may not actually be worth it.


Yea, that's a good stratgey to winning.Keep telling yourself that peeps that believe it :)
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby Mike1989 » December 8, 2018, 11:57 am

NewlyKnicked wrote:So what's your point?
I'm not entirely convinced, but, for you, is Zion worth tanking because he's such a generational talent? AD/Lebron/Duncan... sure were worth tanking for. They weren't crap shoot #1 drafts, , wouldn't you agree? So, not pure luck, right?


If the NBA draft was like the NFL draft, a set order based on win-loss record, then tanking for a perceived generational talent would be understandable for rebuilding teams. However, the NBA uses a lottery system and the new odds offer roughly a 48% chance that a team with a top five seed could fall. The first seed has a 48% chance of falling to five; second seed has similar odds of falling to five or six; the third seed can fall to five, six or seven; fourth seed can fall as low as eight; and the fifth seed can fall as low as nine. Obviously the majority of those teams will pick within the top picks, but there's always a chance that one team falls and that makes tanking dangerous. You could tank for that generational talent and end up with a so-so talent that doesn't move the needle. So while I can understand why some want to tank for Zion, I also think that tanking is a risky business with the odds and draft set up.

I'd rather let the young players compete and develop. If that means we have one of the best odds of winning the lottery, great. But conversely if it means our seeding fall in the six to ten range, so be it. The best thing this team can do is try to win games and build a positive culture. Ok the team needs star talent to get to that next level, but the last thing any team wants is to get stuck in bad habits and losing can become a bad habit, and one that is hard to get out of as certain teams have shown with their long play off droughts (e.g. Sacramento, Orlando).
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby NewlyKnicked » December 9, 2018, 3:23 am

Just to be clear
- I’m all for playing and developing young guys. Hopefully some will be valuable.

- I reacted to « there’s no point in getting one of the worst record because the draft is just luck ». There is a point and it’s not just luck.

Thats all I’m saying
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby shakespeare » December 9, 2018, 9:24 am

Every year team tank is bombarded with anti-tank posts. And every year posters like myself and NK and others have to remind the anti-tankers that, as fans, we hadn’t called nary shot. All we do is recognize the improved draft position that comes with more losses than wins.

I’d search back to see if any of the anti-tankers were born when the franchise ACTUALLY tanked and drafted Porzingis, but I don’t feel like it.

So no, 1) no one has exercise power over the Knicks front office, head coaching and players.
2) No one knows who will be a bust and who will be All-NBA

Blah, blah, blah.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby shakespeare » December 9, 2018, 9:28 am

And I don’t see the big deal about Donovan Mitchell when we drafted Ntilikina.

Ntilikina is an “elite defender” and does things that “don’t show up in the stats.”

Blah, blah, blah.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby shakespeare » December 9, 2018, 9:31 am


I'd rather let the young players compete and develop. If that means we have one of the best odds of winning the lottery, great.


Show me where this isn’t the case, where this isn’t exactly what is taking place.
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Re: 2018-2019 Tank err, Rebuild

Postby dcapodic » December 9, 2018, 10:25 am

Perhaps we could turn this discussion just a bit....for the tank folks, how would you suggest that the Knicks do worse than they currently are doing? The primary ways that I have see teams truly tank in the past is either by sitting or trading veterans that give the team a better chance to win. Add to that not bringing back players that are coming off of injuries when they are ready (I am thinking of David Robinson years ago which allowed SA to get Tim Duncan during a different draft era and perhaps the Knicks now with KP later this season).

The Knicks really pretty much are bad on their own right now, there is nothing else that Fiz or mamangement needs to do to make them any worse. They are tanking "organically"....:) In thoery, this is how it is supposed to work....the team tries its hardest but just is not any good.

To me, I actually feel like the Knicks are in a very good position by this. They are gonna have a sucky record while still giving effort and playing the youngs. Hopefully, that leads to a top pick and KP comes back healthy and ll is good in the world. No need to try and help this along, it is going nicely all by itself.
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