Who's the MVP?

[shakespeare]

That was good work H20.

Agreed. He's one of the purists on this site, including yourself. I didn't have time during the weekend to really analyze his findings, but before this day is done, hopefully I will. As for now, I'll say that until the league leader in PER wins MVP each and every season, it's not all about PER.

Again, I ask the question: If Westbrook averages a triple double every season, does he win MVP every time?

[H20Knick]

Agreed. He's one of the purists on this site, including yourself. I didn't have time during the weekend to really analyze his findings, but before this day is done, hopefully I will. As for now, I'll say that until the league leader in PER wins MVP each and every season, it's not all about PER.

Again, I ask the question: If Westbrook averages a triple double every season, does he win MVP every time?

More food for thought when you get caught up, Shakes...

If his team makes the playoffs, he doesn't have anyone on his team to split votes with, and no one has a higher PER than him, sure. But that's not going to be the case every year. The amount of shots westbrook misses will always make his PER beatable. Steph's was higher last year than Westbrook's is now. Lebron's beaten Westrook's 2017 PER on 3 different occasions. Obviously its important to qualify that statement by saying that PER compares a player to the league average for a season, so comparing between seasons isn't really fair (although it is in the sense that PER is therefore adjusted for league pace, trends in officiating, rule changes, etc). I think if someone comes within +/- 1.0 of him and wins significantly more games, then Westbrook wouldn't win it.

You can say that "until the league leader in PER wins MVP each and every season"... but he pretty much has. There will be exceptions to every rule, but looking at the data, I think my findings have a stronger correlation than any other measure someone would think to use. Especially in the super team era. Yes, I know, it gets weaker as you go into the past, but the MVP is voted on by the media. 10 years ago, the media couldn't just go pull PER stats for every player in a few minutes. If i'm on the media in 2017 and I want to unbiasedly try to see who is impacting the game the most, I'm going to look to advanced analytics. The strongest argument you could use against it is to say that you're biasing too heavily toward offense over defense... Well if that's the way you feel, then you really, REALLY can't justify harden over westbrook or kawhi.

I mean, if you just look at the times in the last 10 years when my prediction would've been wrong, it would just be the times when someone was so popular or respected or revered (or the opposite) that people voted with their hearts. All of those things would point to Westbrook. Who plays the hardest? Westbrook. Who is the guy who gets touted for being loyal in an era of disloyalty? Westbrook. Why is Westbrook alone? Because Harden ran away to Houston and Durant ran away to OKC. If I were to be ballsy enough to try to predict social/nonstatistical conditions for PER-upsets in MVP voting, I'd pick this year in FAVOR of westbrook. I.e. if Harden somehow had a better PER, I'd STILL consider picking westbrook.

I think those of you who think Harden and Lebron have a chance at winning this thing are going to be very, very surprised with how lopsided the voting ends up. There's no real way to look at any of the data and end up on Harden or James. And its impossible to play the eye test because these guys play 82 games a year and you couldnt possibly watch all of them. That Tuesday evening game against the Trailblazers is no less important than that Sunday afternoon ABC televised game against the Warriors. You remember one of them. Stats remember all of them.

[taowave]

I think one could make a very strong case for LeBron.

Far more efficient and the best defensive player in the league.

[H20Knick]

I think one could make a very strong case for LeBron.

Far more efficient and the best defensive player in the league.

When the difference in average record between the eastern conference and the western conference is 3 games, and you have Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love and manage to only have a better record than OKC by 4 games, you shouldnt win the MVP.

[dcapodic]

You may a valid argument for using statistics to judge performance, especially as it pertains to the MVP voting. This is certainly the direction that sports seems to be going. However, there is defintiely a "feel" factor to thse types of judgments. Since there are no set parameters to judge by, many have a different set of values that they base their decision on. Often these values differ greatly and even conversely.

To boil it down....Westbrook will win because he did something that stuck out and can be judged and rated by hard statistics so peeps can look at taht and rationalize their decisions. I look at it a bit differenty....is Westbrook that much better a player this year than he was last? You can pull the stats and look at that question analytically but from the "look and see" of it, not really. People like to say, "Look how he drove that team after KD left". Whereas, the counter is that he is able to do the things he does BECAUSE KD left. He can dominate the ball, shoot whenever he likes, have the offense centered around him, etc. His stats should look good.

Frankly, I am a bit surprised at the way peeps like to try and discredit what Harden does. Ironically, having seen him play a lot this year, I have grown to form a different opinion of him than I have had in the past. Arguably, he also dominates the ball at times. However, often he does not. You could say it is because he has a better team around him. Or, you coould say that is beacue he does not always need to do that, there are times when his team is clicking well and does not need a dominating presence. This is where he differes from Westbrook, IMHO, and pulls up alongside Lebron. The understanding that you don't always ahve to be the star, just be it when the team needs it.

Not sure how stats can back that up. Yea, you could try and pull some and rationilize how they fit into that but, to me that is more of a "look and feel" judgement.

So, Westbrook wins but there certainly is room to understand how stats do not tell the whole story.

[shakespeare]

H20Knick,

Based on your findings, Westbrook deserves to win the MVP, agreed. I still think it's the triple-double factor, but maybe that weighs heavily on PER or, as you stated, impact. I'd never say he doesn't deserve it, cause he's been a beast all season long. The same as Harden, LeBron (Kevin Love missed quite a few games), and Kawhi, although I read where Spurs went 6-1 in the games he missed. Not sure how Westbrook's 42% had more impact that LeBron's 54% though. At the end of the day, I hardly believe we'd have this conversation if Westbrook didn't average a triple-double. Also, LeBron's true shooting percentage blows Westbrook's true shooting percentage out the water.

Whomever wins, there'll be some rants about how the other three players were just as deserving, I'm sure.

Maybe I'm one of the few people who expected OKC to still make the playoffs without Durant. Westbrook nearly put them in the playoffs two seasons ago when Durant was lost for the season. (I think that was two seasons ago.)

[n8 the gr8]

tao and Shakes, shooting efficiency is accounted for in PER which is what H20 was using. It might not be weighted as heavily as you'd like but I'd assume that's why H20 wasn't addressing it explicitly.

Frankly, I am a bit surprised at the way peeps like to try and discredit what Harden does. Ironically, having seen him play a lot this year, I have grown to form a different opinion of him than I have had in the past. Arguably, he also dominates the ball at times. However, often he does not. You could say it is because he has a better team around him. Or, you coould say that is beacue he does not always need to do that, there are times when his team is clicking well and does not need a dominating presence. This is where he differes from Westbrook, IMHO, and pulls up alongside Lebron. The understanding that you don't always ahve to be the star, just be it when the team needs it.

Not sure how stats can back that up. Yea, you could try and pull some and rationilize how they fit into that but, to me that is more of a "look and feel" judgement.

So, Westbrook wins but there certainly is room to understand how stats do not tell the whole story.

Good post, I thought this was really well put especially. It almost seems to me like Harden allowed his team more room to breathe and grow into their roles, makes his team better in more ways than just via assists, hockey-assists and spacing.

[H20Knick]

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/1942 ... -finalists

James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook vie for MVP
9:34 PM ET
Ohm Youngmisuk

The NBA Most Valuable Player award will come down to Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard.

LeBron James will not be in the mix.

James was left out of the running Friday night when the NBA announced three finalists for each of its six major awards. It's the first time since 2008 that he's finished outside the top three.

I think those of you who think Harden and Lebron have a chance at winning this thing are going to be very, very surprised with how lopsided the voting ends up. There's no real way to look at any of the data and end up on Harden or James.

When the difference in average record between the eastern conference and the western conference is 3 games, and you have Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love and manage to only have a better record than OKC by 4 games, you shouldnt win the MVP.

I also think people just expect more wins out of Lebron's team considering that he's the best player in the game. The bulls won more than 60+ games in all but one of their championship seasons. 51 wins from lebron's team this year is not impressive. He almost disrespects the regular season award because he doesn't always play hard enough. If you think he does play hard enough, then I ask you why his PER isn't higher than everyone elses and how he only has one 60+ win season since he was a hungry lone wolf during his first tour in cleveland.

.....


Additionally, Lebron's PER is lower than Kawhi and Harden AND his team is worse than Kawhi's and Harden's. So no way he's going to win MVP unless people just think he needs more hype.

With these stats in mind, I'm picking Westbrook for MVP. Kawhi will finish 2nd. Harden will finish 3rd.

the defense rests its case

[spree#8]

LeBron not among the top three in MVP voting for the regular season just shows you in how good a place the NBA is right now. Westbrook probably will win it and Harden might be second, but if you ask me to rank the top players in the league I might take not only Lebron, but also Leonard, Curry and Durant over them.

BTW: H20, I agree that LeBron has no place in the top three for regular season MVP this year. As you said: the Cavs 51 wins were not good enough for that.

[gradyandrew]

Was the MVP announced and I missed it?

I don't get why it is taking forever to announce it this year.

Is Silver petrified of that year when Dirk won and then lost in the first round to Baron Davis and the Warriors?

[n8 the gr8]

Was the MVP announced and I missed it?

I don't get why it is taking forever to announce it this year.

Is Silver petrified of that year when Dirk won and then lost in the first round to Baron Davis and the Warriors?

They're making a show out of it next week, trying to keep the league relevant year round. I think they're just trying something new but there's no way they do it again next year because everyone has pretty much lost interest.

I saw somewhere that someone got answers from a large portion of the people who had votes and it sounds like Westbrook has it locked down.

[big_j_NY]

They're making a show out of it next week, trying to keep the league relevant year round. I think they're just trying something new but there's no way they do it again next year because everyone has pretty much lost interest.

I saw somewhere that someone got answers from a large portion of the people who had votes and it sounds like Westbrook has it locked down.

Truth n8..........it is because of the TV deal that boosted the NBA salary cap to EXTRAORDINARY LEVELS. It may be one of the stipulations of the new TV deal by having an actual TV award show based around the end-of-year NBA Awards.

It'll be up for debate whether they decide to NOT do a TV awards show for next year but right now.......that TV deal is most likely promising that the NBA grant an award show of some form.

[H20Knick]

Russell Westbrook is your MVP.

I TOLD YOU SO

[shakespeare]

Loved Westbrook's acceptance speech.

[shakespeare]

Russell Westbrook is your MVP.

I TOLD YOU SO

Sure did.