Knicks 2018 cap situation (including 2019 outlook)

[spree#8]

On special request by Nazr, here a little head start on our current cap situation for next summer. While I think we won't be a free agency player for quite some time, it can't hurt to look at our financial situation. It is just a quick primer for now with all available data known to this point.

Same procedure as every year, I like to have one own thread for all things related to our salary cap position so it doesn't perish somewhere in the free agency thread and instead can be found quickly.

So here we go. Salaries according to: http://www.spotrac.com/nba/new-york-knicks/cap/

Under contract (guaranteed) - 14 players:
Enes Kanter 18,622,513
Joakim Noah 18,530,000
Tim Hardaway Jr. 17,325,000
Courtney Lee 12,253,780
Lance Thomas 7,119,650
Mario Hezonja 6,500,000
Kristaps Porzingis 5,697,054
Ron Baker 4,544,000
Emmanuel Mudiay 4,294,480
Frank Ntilikina 4,155,720
Kevin Knox 3,739,920
Luke Kornet 1,619,260
Mitchell Robinson 1,523,810
Damyean Dotson 1,378,242
Sum 107,303,429

Under contract (partially guaranteed)
Trey Burke 1,795,015
Noah Vonleh 1,512,601 (according to ESPN)

Two way contracts
Allonzo Trier
Isiah Hicks

Cap holds free agents
None.

Roster charge (for every spot up to 12 when fewer players/cap holds included):
838,464

Trade exceptions:
2,381,965 (until 09/25/18)
1,435,750 (until 02/07/19)

Salary cap:
101,869,000

Apron:
127,020,606

Max contracts (estimates):
0-6 years experience 25,467,250
7-9 years 30,560,700
10- years 35,654,150

Most common exceptions (estimates):
Non-tax payer (over the cap, below apron after use) 8,641,486
Tax-payer (over the cap, over apron after use) 5,337,449
Bi-annual (every two years available if over cap, but below apron after use) 3,382,166
Room-exception (when team used cap space, after capping out) 4,449,245

Cap space left:
None. But we still have the bi-annual exception - if we choose to use it. Unguaranteed contracts put us at 16 players, one above the roster limit for the regular season, so some movements are still expected.

2019 cap primer
Expected salary cap: 109,000,000
Max contracts (estimates):
0-6 years experience 27,250,000
7-9 years 32,700,000
10- years 38,150,000

Current expected cap room:
32,703,349
Assumptions: Hardaway, Porzingis (cap hold before signing new contract), Lee, Ntilikina, Knox, Burke (cap hold before signing new contract) and Robinson on the books, plus roughly 5m for 2019 draft pick, plus 1m guranteed Thomas' money, plus 4 roster charges.

Kanter, Hezonja, Mudiay, Baker, Kornet, Williams expired and renounced, Thomas waived, option on Dotson not picked up.

The calculation:
Noah waived and stretched 19,295,000/3 = 6,431,667
Hardaway 18,150,000
Porzingis cap hold 17,091,162 (3* his 2018-19 salary)
Lee 12,759,670
Ntilikina 4,855,800
2019 8th pick cap hold (estimate) 4,850,000
Knox 4,380,120
Burke cap hold 1,618,520
Robinson 1,559,712
Thomas dead money 1,000,000
4 roster charges (estimate) 3,600,000
Sum 76,296,651

Possible cap room:
Trading Lee for an expiring gives us cap space of 44,563,019; waiving and stretching Lee in addition to Noah creates cap space of 40,309,796. Doing as above, but also keeping Dotson on his option for 1,618,520 would result in just 718,520 less cap room (because of one less roster charge).

So we are flexible to be a player in 2019, although not much interest in joining the Knicks should be expected with the team likely looking like a tanking team in 18-19 while KP is out.

Creating two max slots for free agents with 7-9 years experience:
Hypothetical goal for some is to be able to sign two players for 32,700,000 each, while keeping KP, Knox, Ntilikina and apparently Robinson.

How does it work?

On the books:
Porzingis cap hold 17,091,162
Ntilikina 4,855,800
Knox 4,380,120
Robinson 1,559,712
Noah dead money 6,431,667
Thomas dead money 1,000,000
8 roster charges (estimate) 7,200,000
Sum 42,518,461
That would leave an amount of 66,481,539 and be enough to sign two max players -> 66,481,539 - 32,700,000*2 + 900,000*2 = 2,881,539. That difference would be enough to keep a 2019 first rounder estimated from pick 18 down to 30.

So we would have to trade Hardaway and Lee for expirings, waive and stretch Noah (edit: done), waive Thomas, trade down from likely the lottery to at least 18, don't pick up Dotson's option and let Kanter, Burke, Hezonja, Mudiay, Baker, Kornet, Vonleh expire and renounce their rights.

Alternatively we could also trade Robinson for an expiring, which would leave 3,541,251 for a 2019 first round pick, meaning we would have to trade down to at least pick 14. Ideally we would additionally be able to trade Thomas for an expiring, giving us one full mill more (because a roster charge for his empty spot is already included). With 4,541,251 mill we could keep a first round approximately from pick 9 down.

Edit 1: Post trade deadline update.
Edit 2: player options picked up by Kanter and Baker, opt-out exercised by O'Quinn.
Edit 3: updated cap-related estimates based on new cap setting.
Edit 4: free agency update. We acted as a team over the cap (as expected) and reportedly used 6.5m of the non-tax payer MLE to sign Mario Hezonja on a one year deal. We also signed Luke Kornet to a 1.6m deal using an exception to sign former two-way players.
Edit 5: Kevin Knox, Allonzo Trier (TW) and Isiah Hicks (TW) signed their deals. Kyle O'Quinn departed to the Pacers.
Edit 6: Added 2019 cap primer.
Edit 7: Troy Williams (unguaranteed) waived.
Edit 8: Added Mitchell Robinson's contract details.
Edit 9: Michael Beasley signed contract with Lakers.
Edit 10: Added Noah Vonleh's cap number.
Edit 11: put some exact numbers in the 2019 primer and included the calculation for two max slots.
Edit 12: Jarret Jack signed deal with New Orleans.
Edit 13: Joakim Noah was waived and stretched before the start of the 2018-19 season.
Other edits: formatting/wording.

[nazrmohamed]

Yeeeeeeaaaaaaahhhh.

Couldn't wait. I gotta take more time on this, but I thought it was necessary. The Knicks seem to be playing just well enough to find themselves out of the lottery, yet not good enough to be contenders. This means we're probably going to draft and acquire via free agency mid tier players. No elite prospects, no elite free agents. We got a draft thread but I can't even shop for FA's till I know what we can afford so thanks........ for letting me know we have
NOTHING!!!!! Goddamn we broke.

[spree#8]

Don't worry, we will be in the lottery. And the MLE is quite high with over 8 mill. We are fine. Free agency is just not our main priority right now, but sitting right at the cap still gives us some flexibility.

[gradyandrew]

We've all seen "Now you see me" right? If a hypnotist can convince that French guy to go to las Vegas, then I think it should be relatively easy to get one to convince Ron Baker to opt out, right?

KOQ and Kanter are more difficult. The way they are playing seems to be a pretty close match to their salaries. I have no idea what the plan is. They both look like they enjoy playing in New York, so that counts for something. If they both opt out, we would have a decent amount of cap space to chase free agents. Dougie Fresh is another wild card. We don't want anyone to THJ him away from us.

The Knicks could just return everyone, but I'm not sure it leads to success. Rebound is going to hate me for saying so but I think Jack has been the secret to our success. So bringing back the same roster is risky if our hopes lie with an older PG.

[Championship 16/17]

Beasley, Jack, and Sessions should not be brought back next season.

You resign Kyle and McDermott.

I don't think Kanter will opt out.

Try to trade Lance Thomas and Ron Baker at trade deadline.

[Don Che]

Lance provides good leadership and when we clamp down defensively....he's on the floor

plus hes our longest tenured Knick and isnt getting a boatload of $

Id let Sessions/Beasley walk

Kyle and Willy I'm on the fence but I'd totally get it if both of them arent here next year and we run with Kanter/Noah/Kornet

i'd sign Kevon Looney this offseason tho. Exactly what we need...long defender that can cover 3/4/5. Mobile/rebounds and doesnt need plays ran for him.

[gradyandrew]

1st Trimester grades on the curve:
A+ KP
A THJ
A- Lee
B+ Kanter
B Jack
B- KOQ
C+ Beasley
C Frank
C- Doug McD
D+ Lance
D Dotson
D- Baker
F+ Willy Hernangomez
F Joakim Noah
F- Ramon Sessions


He's probably a cool dude, but I don't think it's even worthwhile to have Sessions on the roster anymore.

Trey Burke had 28 points and six assists in Westchester's win over Salt Lake City tonight.

The Knicks would be better off being served bringing Trey up.

I don't think Baker opts out.

Kanter and O'Quinn are the biggest unknowns. Besides them DMC, Greg Monroe, Brook Lopez, Derrick Favors, Frye, and some other guys are also centers on the market. Last season the cap number came in way low so the money is always an estimate. Just having competitive teams in NY and LA usually make for higher ratings, but we'll have to wait until the playoffs to really know. My feeling is that the fundamentals of this team are solid and should be kept together. Jeff has somethings to figure out regarding the rotation but I still think we make the playoffs. That said, as long as Noah is here the Knicks are in a tight cap situation. Any deals we make shouldn't go past 2019-20 when Noah's deal expires.

Jack seems old but really isn't. There are still plenty of guys from his draft class around including Chris Paul.
Doug has proven a much better defender, and a creative cutter on offense, This in addition to being a marksman.
Beasley has great offense and can win games.


That team we can hit a FA with Frank, THJ, KP, maybe Dotson and Willy and a max free agent spot open.

[Koopa Troopa]

We've all seen "Now you see me" right? If a hypnotist can convince that French guy to go to las Vegas, then I think it should be relatively easy to get one to convince Ron Baker to opt out, right?

KOQ and Kanter are more difficult. The way they are playing seems to be a pretty close match to their salaries. I have no idea what the plan is. They both look like they enjoy playing in New York, so that counts for something. If they both opt out, we would have a decent amount of cap space to chase free agents. Dougie Fresh is another wild card. We don't want anyone to THJ him away from us.

The Knicks could just return everyone, but I'm not sure it leads to success. Rebound is going to hate me for saying so but I think Jack has been the secret to our success. So bringing back the same roster is risky if our hopes lie with an older PG.

Not sure how Kanter opts out. Hes not getting 19 million from anybody. The only way I could see him opting out is if he thinks his body is deteriorating and wants to sign a long term deal quick before hes exposed. Baker would be a fool to opt out. If he ops out he'll end up playing overseas.... Or Perry will give him 20 mil a year like George Hill who knows

[rebound]

Summer of 2018 the Knicks have no moves to make. The last thing they should do is use future cap space on more washed up veterans.

If they move Lee for a contract that expires in 2019, summer of 2019 means Kanter, Lee's replacement, Lance(1mil dead cap), and Baker all off the books.
Only thing on the Knicks books that summer will be
Noah(1 year at 19 mil can be stretched over 5 years if more cap space is needed needed)
Timmy 18 mil
KP's cap hold 17mil
Frank
2018 rookie
etc

Now the Knicks don't have to go all in 2019 but they gain very little cap space waiting for Noah's contract to expire as KP's cap hold will jump to around 28 mil the next season.

[Don Che]

I think with KP ext looming

its best to not go crazy with trying to sign big paychecks this offseason next. We should be in the business of letting the contracts expire if need be and picking up small contracts with guys who can exceed their contracts.

from a cap POV ...if Kanter and Kyle opt to be FA's financially/production wise it might be best to let them both expire. Let Willy/Noah take the reigns of the 5 spot next year and invest similar to how the Nets have and getting lottery picks from other teams that havent panned out that fit your principles and buy cheap and hope 1 of them hits high

[gradyandrew]

I think Perry should waive Beasley and Jack before the break finishes. I don't see how the Knicks keep them around next season with KP out, those guys aren't doing anything except helping the Knicks win games, which unfortunately is no longer the plan. I think both have a chance to be contributors on a playoff team. It's time to thank them and let them move on to hopefully greener pastures. All the long term big money guys (Lee, Thomas, Noah) should be kept on the roster until the summer.

[dcapodic]

If I understand this correctly, we essentially have liitle/no room to sign a free agent except minimum type deals. So, if, let's say, we were to have access to a young hmmm, point guard for example but the worry is that he will be in his QO next year and there is a chance that someone could offer him a bigger contract (there is also a chance that he might not get any better offers, after all many seem to have low regard for him right now anyway) and we might need to match....we could do that with really little/no impact on our 2018/2019 cap space, since we essentially have none anyway and you are allowed to go over to sign your own players. For the most part, it would be almost as if you signed that young, talented PG in free agency when you could not really have done it if you didn't get him earlier. So, if anyone used the "excuse" of this young PG's "contract status" as a reason to not acquire him this year, it really is of little/no bearing at all. It is really a non excuse. Sounds legit until you take a look at a bit closer.

Just curious, does this make sense, I am not a cap guru.

[gradyandrew]

If I understand this correctly, we essentially have liitle/no room to sign a free agent except minimum type deals. So, if, let's say, we were to have access to a young hmmm, point guard for example but the worry is that he will be in his QO next year and there is a chance that someone could offer him a bigger contract (there is also a chance that he might not get any better offers, after all many seem to have low regard for him right now anyway) and we might need to match....we could do that with really little/no impact on our 2018/2019 cap space, since we essentially have none anyway and you are allowed to go over to sign your own players. For the most part, it would be almost as if you signed that young, talented PG in free agency when you could not really have done it if you didn't get him earlier. So, if anyone used the "excuse" of this young PG's "contract status" as a reason to not acquire him this year, it really is of little/no bearing at all. It is really a non excuse. Sounds legit until you take a look at a bit closer.

Just curious, does this make sense, I am not a cap guru.

From what I've seen the only teams that we should worry about stealing Mudiay from us are the Beijing Ducks, Shanghai Sharks, and Turkish Delights. From what I've seen Emmanuel's game consists of passes that go nowhere, turnovers and rushed 3's for a guy shooting 30%. Oh and did I mention that when he gets the ball there is a 50-50 chance he'll just decide to keep it no matter what? Here's to hoping he proves me wrong.

[spree#8]

If we act as a team over the cap (which is likely unless Kanter opts out or Noah let's a lot of money on the table), we have the MLE, which is at over 8 mill nowadays.

[gradyandrew]

If we act as a team over the cap (which is likely unless Kanter opts out or Noah let's a lot of money on the table), we have the MLE, which is at over 8 mill nowadays.

Woah, Noah's contract and buy out are two cups of tea right? Even if he accepts a $3 buy out we'll still take the same cap hit. The one argument in favor of stretching is that over time with a rising cap, the comparative cost of the hit (as a percentage of the total) will decrease.

[spree#8]

If we act as a team over the cap (which is likely unless Kanter opts out or Noah let's a lot of money on the table), we have the MLE, which is at over 8 mill nowadays.

Woah, Noah's contract and buy out are two cups of tea right? Even if he accepts a $3 buy out we'll still take the same cap hit. The one argument in favor of stretching is that over time with a rising cap, the comparative cost of the hit (as a percentage of the total) will decrease.

No. If he takes a buyout, that amount will be counted against the cap over the remainder of his contract (or over twice the number of years plus one - i.e. 5 ATM). Stretching is not a possibility in my book at his current price tag, because it would take out too much money in years where we want to be players in free agency again. Even with a buyout I probably would not stretch the cap hits and rather be "clean" of it in 2020. We are a little under the cap, so if he agrees to a significantly lower buyout, it could create more cap room than the MLE even without stretching.

But I'm fine either way, because with the 8.something mill MLE you can get something and for now we should be more focused on the draft than free agency anyway.

[gradyandrew]

59. Can existing contracts be renegotiated?

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or previous renegotiation (if the previous negotiation increased any season's salary by more than 5%). Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year.

Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap (and cannot increase the player's salary beyond the maximum salary). A renegotiation can only be used to provide a salary increase -- players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create more cap room for the team.

[spree#8]

59. Can existing contracts be renegotiated?

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or previous renegotiation (if the previous negotiation increased any season's salary by more than 5%). Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year.

Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap (and cannot increase the player's salary beyond the maximum salary). A renegotiation can only be used to provide a salary increase -- players can't take a "pay cut" in order to create more cap room for the team.

That means that we can't renegotiate a contract down and keep the player. For buyouts you have to look here: http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q66

[gradyandrew]

I understand that you can reduce the salary received, but I always thought that the original amount remains as the cap hit. Like when Larry Sanders left to Bucks, they were still on the hookcap wise for the original amount. I'll take your word on it.

[dcapodic]

From what I've seen the only teams that we should worry about stealing Mudiay from us are the Beijing Ducks, Shanghai Sharks, and Turkish Delights. From what I've seen Emmanuel's game consists of passes that go nowhere, turnovers and rushed 3's for a guy shooting 30%. Oh and did I mention that when he gets the ball there is a 50-50 chance he'll just decide to keep it no matter what? Here's to hoping he proves me wrong.

Thanks for the followup gradyandrew but i was actually referring to the point guard of the Suns, the target of a recent debate. I probably should have just asked spree outright since he is the cap guru.

spree....you probably know what i am referring to....one of the arguments against Payton was his "contract status". However, if we are over the cap anyway (or close to it), does it really have much effect on 2018/2019? First off, he has his QO which means someone has to offer him more to even create the situation where you might have to offer him a bigger contract, correct. Also, if the Knicks did wind up having to meet an offer, it really would not effect 2018/2019 much if they decided to sign him, correct? Also, in 2019/2020 we will go through the same for Mudiay, if we are still interested, correct?

TIA!!